The Guaxupé Regional Coffee Growers Cooperative (Cooxupé, Brazil) held its 7th Coffee and Climate Forum on August 14 in Guaxupé, Minas Gerais. The meeting presented a detailed analysis of the climate conditions recorded in the last agricultural year, their impacts on production, and the outlook for future harvests.

The event featured Guilherme Vinicius Teixeira, coordinator of Cooxupé's Geoprocessing Department; Marco Antônio dos Santos, agrometeorologist and founding partner of Rural Clima; and Professor José Donizeti Alves, PhD, of the Federal University of Lavras (UFLA).

Guilherme Vinicius Teixeira highlighted in his lecture that the current harvest began to form in 2023, but suffered a delay in flowering due to the late return of rains, which arrived in mid-October 2024, after a long period of drought. However, from that month until December, the crops showed fruit expansion. However, the reduction in rainfall between February and April, the coffee granulation phase, hampered weight gain and bean density. "The yield of this harvest is not as good. In other words, the producer is using more harvested coffee to produce the same processed volume," he explained.

Regarding the 2025 harvest, Guilherme indicated that the prolonged water deficit also aggravated the decline in chumbinho coffee. A higher percentage of mocha coffee was also observed. "These seeds appear when only one of the fruit branches is fertilized or when one of them transfers energy to other parts of the plant," he explained.

Guilherme predicts a challenging scenario for 2026. This is because the delay in rainfall has reduced the growth period of the branches, thereby reducing production potential. Rainfed crops recorded an average of 11 nodes, while irrigated crops recorded 14. In addition, hail and frost occurred in the Mogi region of São Paulo state and in southern Minas Gerais, as well as frost in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais. "However, since the harvest is still underway in some regions of Cooxupé's operating area, we are harvesting fruit from the 2025 harvest and some flower buds that would have been harvested in 2026. Given this scenario, it is too early to estimate the volume, but we already know there will be an impact," he stated.

For 2027, the outlook is more encouraging. Forecasts of earlier rainfall than in 2024 could favor an earlier and longer start to the growing season, increasing production potential, provided weather conditions remain favorable.

Agronomist Marco Antonio dos Santos noted that the 2025/26 season presents much more favorable conditions than the previous year. "In 2024, we had more than 120 days of drought, irregular rainfall, and high temperatures, which hampered flowering and grain filling. This year is different," he emphasized.

According to him, the rains should arrive earlier, in mid-September, about a month earlier than in 2024, creating a more humid environment for flowering. "This will result in earlier flowering, in a more favorable scenario compared to last year. In addition to the onset of the rains, there should also be continuity," he stated.

Another positive point, according to Marco Antonio, is that temperatures also tend to be milder and more uniform, especially with the possible confirmation of La Niña in November. "Summer, despite the possibility of some dry periods, will be shorter compared to the dry period of 2025. We had extremely dry January and February, which affected bean production. This year, due to the formation of La Niña, everything points to better coffee productivity and better bean weight," he assessed.

The expert, however, issued a warning: "As there hasn't been such pronounced water stress, due to increased rainfall, especially in the south and southeast of Minas Gerais and Mogiana in São Paulo, multiple blooms could occur. This doesn't affect productivity, but it can compromise quality," he noted. Physiological Management: Paying Attention to the Four Stages of Coffee Production

Professor José Donizeti Alves of UFLA emphasized that the coffee growing season requires attention to four crucial stages that determine the size of the coffee tree's production: flower set, fruit set, fruit expansion, and grain formation.

He emphasized that the weather conditions for this growing season, which is now beginning (from July until the end of the harvest), are quite favorable compared to last year, which was characterized by a severe drought between April and October.